A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
